We
face a specter of deflation. This condition, deflation, characterized the Great
Depression. Prominent economists, like Harvard’s Lawrence Summers, blame secular
stagnation: they blame slackening demand for the shriveling economic growth that
has put downward pressure on interest rates, incomes, and prices in America and
in the world. They attribute secular
stagnation to the accumulation of income in the hands of savers and lenders (banks
and capital holders, corporations, the rich, the single and childless, and seniors)
and to the relative depletion of means among spenders and borrowers (laborers, mom
and pop businesses, the poor, parents and families with children, and the
young). For example, about 20% of income goes to 1% of America’s population; and
about 20% of wealth is held by 0.1% of Americans. In fact, excepting the period
that just preceded the Great Depression, inequality in America has never been
greater. For all of its virtues to the individual, saving was bad for the
economy then. And it is now. It takes money out of circulation—away from those
who would take risks to create new products or services and jobs and industries--away
from those who would use it to buy a house or a business or an education—away from
those who need food or clothes or diapers today. Mattress-money has utility only
to him that hoards it. In circulation, money has utility to every hand through
which it passes. The more it moves in a year, the bigger is our Gross Domestic Product.
But savers don’t need to spend. They don’t consume much. They can wait until something
they want is cheaper. And it will be cheaper if the economy is characterized by
savers. When savers dominate, goods get cheaper and jobs get fewer. When the economy contracts, savers and lenders won't take the risks that return economic growth. In other
words, the tendency of our economy was, just before the Great Depression, and
is, at present, to distribute income to those doing the least to grow or
sustain the economy. This trend, toward an economy dominated by savers and lenders, is
deflationary and deflation is the condition that characterized the Great
Depression.
According
to economists, this tendency to secular stagnation is exacerbated by population
trends in America. Birth rates are falling: in fact, in recent years, American births
will not suffice to replenish the existing population. Moreover, the population
is aging in America. The dwindling size of America’s population will naturally
reduce the number of consumers and workers and shrink the size of America’s
economy. Comprised increasingly of older adults without children, America’s
population will spend less and save more. As more savers save more, a dreadful economic
cycle will spin—spending will shrivel—wages will wither—jobs will end--dollars
will rise—debts will crush—exports will fall--companies will fail—stock
listings will shrink--rates will fall—as the returns on their savings fall, savers
will need to save more or take more risks in order to retire--because the economy is in turmoil, savers
will be more risk averse; some may resort to storing money in their mattresses.
As more savers save more, this dreadful cycle will begin anew. In other words,
this trend, toward a population of older adults without children, is
deflationary and deflation is the condition that characterized the Great
Depression.
In this light, consider the ideal economic man. This individual would selflessly do what is best for our economy. He would work hard. And spend everything (ie. on taxes). He would borrow. And spend the proceeds immediately. He would marry. His wife would work always. She would not save either. They would have children—many children like themselves—tomorrow’s workers, consumers, taxpayers, and parents—and not tomorrow’s savers or retirees. This coolie and his wife would never retire except in death. Now ask yourself, would you want to be this person? Would you want your children or grandchildren to live this way? Is this how our collective wisdom suggests that we should live in America? If not, please recognize that your culture is counterproductive to the economy. And if your personal agency is uneconomic--as it conforms to a counterproductive culture--it will ultimately be unsustainable.
Now, in the same light, let’s consider our new economic
institution, gay marriage. This institution has largely been created by our
courts without the benefit of economic testimony. Where are the economic
witnesses on this issue? For some reason, the courts won’t hear them. Nonetheless,
they should speak.
The U.S.
Census Bureau (2010 ACS) reports that there were 594,000 same-sex households in
2010 and that about 115,000 same-sex households, or 19% of these households,
were then rearing children. In absolute terms, same-sex households represented
0.5% of American households and they were raising about 0.3% of tomorrow’s
taxpayers, workers, civil servants, and/or soldiers. In relative terms, the data are more
remarkable: in 2010, married-couple
households were more than twice (two times) as likely to have children at home
as were same-sex households. This data suggests that the typical married-couple
household should expect to expend at least twice as much on child care, extra
housing expenses, food, furniture, clothing, transportation, school fees,
lessons, and travel for children as the typical same-sex couple does. The typical
married-couple had 1.25 children. To raise 1.25 children to age 18, the typical
married-couple expends over $300,000, according to the U.S. Department of
Agriculture--$241,000 per child. This expenditure, a sacrifice to rear tomorrow’s
workers, taxpayers, civil servants, and/or soldiers, represents about 400% of
the median net worth of an American family according to the Federal Reserve’s 2010
Survey of Consumer Finances. Apparently, while typical married couples expend 400%
of their typical net worth rearing tomorrow’s workers, taxpayers, civil
servants, and/or soldiers, same-sex couples don’t—or won’t. Consequently, the
spending of same-sex couples is more discretionary. Consequently, they are able
save much of the $300,000 others expended. Because same-sex couples are
characterized by natural childlessness and by the discretionary income typical
of savers and not by the compulsory spending typical of parenting couples, they
are among those who do the least to grow or sustain the economy. In fact, same-sex
marriage is a poster relationship for ebbing macroeconomic demand—an economic institution
advanced at a time when economic demand is already ebbing and economic depression
is already menacing.
While, apparently, same-sex couples buck the economic yoke
of children elemental to a sustainable economy, they will, if gay marriage
becomes the law of the land, nonetheless, partake of the same (or better)
social services and benefits. In some states, this relative economic advantage
for same-sex couples has already been created by the courts: all of the social
service schemes created over decades by legislatures on behalf of traditional
families have been awarded to same-sex couples by federal courts without amendments
or alterations that would equalize the disparate impacts. In this way, same-sex
marriage is made an equal but separate unjustly enriching and unsustainable institution. In other
words, these policies have made same-sex marriage relatively more economic and
traditional marriage relatively less economic to the individuals involved therein. Consequently, the new same-sex unions
have a competitive advantage in a competitive world characterized by economic
and employment insecurity. This relatively disadvantages heterosexual married
couples economically. This economic inequality, created by our courts, will
discourage some traditional marriages, some child-bearing, some child-rearing, some
consumer spending, and consequently, macroeconomic growth or longed-for economic
recovery—simply because government-sponsored economic incentives already favor
same-sex unions and thus tax traditional unions in some states. Perhaps it
already has? For example, according to the Guttmacher Institute, at present, birth
rates in America, unsustainable since 2011 (per the Economist), have come to rely
on unintended pregnancies—and not on deliberate decisions to parent. The U.S. Supreme
Court is considering extending this perverse equal-but-separate economic regime
to all of the states in the Union.
Like many other childless savers, gay marriage advocates
have utilized their retained capital macro-uneconomically; unlike many other childless
savers, militant gay marriage advocates have utilized their retained capital in ways
that are destructive to the economy and to the economic prospects of others. To
avert anticipated discrimination, some have sought to spoil the economic
opportunity of those they consider their opponents. We have witnessed the
destruction of livelihoods and businesses by gay marriage vigilantes to enforce
a peculiar, personal moral code. Does this unchecked vigilantism conduce to
security and stability—to the conditions necessary to the formation of families,
of new companies, and of jobs? Vigilantes should remember that their means will
be their ends: falsehood and force beget falsehood and force—not unanimity or
even unity. Moreover, can spoliation yield economic security or sustainability?
The scorched-earth strategies of militant gay marriage advocates are economically
destructive and un-American.
To say that gay marriage induces economic inequality and
macroeconomic decline and that vigilantism by gay marriage advocates is destructive to
the economy is not to say that same-sex love doesn’t matter. It is simply to
say that gay marriage is uneconomic--relative to traditional marriage—from a
macro perspective.
Some have suggested that gay marriage will be the end of the
world. This author disagrees. Legal gay marriage will not be the end of the
world; it will, however, be the end of the American (and hence the world)
economy as we have known it. Gay marriage will be the end of the economy
because it will disadvantage faith—belief in the improbable providence of the
American Dream, in children and child-bearing and child-rearing, in information
(ie. in education and economic data; as Wes Pruden suggests "Fact and fiction deserve equal respect in an age when all things are equal."), in independent conviction and thought and
action, in just laws and judges that will defend ideas and persons and property,
in our leaders, and in a blameless, benevolent God who orders human affairs. It
already has. It will be the end of the economy because it will elevate and
empower an institution that is economically unsustainable and economically
disruptive—because it will relatively demote and disrupt an institution that has
always sustained the economy (the traditional family)--because it will induce a
perverse inequality. Consequently, its effect, in tandem with other adverse economic
trends, will be economic depression. It will be the end of the economy because
the LGBT lifestyle, so socially ascendant in the present, is unsustainable
unless the economy is planned—planned by an un-American government—planned as
to population—planned to regulate childbirth—forcefully planned to redistribute
the future income of one’s children to childless pensioners—planned by
proponents of planning—planned by those practicing diverse but unsustainable
lifestyles. And planned economies have always languished. In other words, although
it would temporarily console a 1% minority of American couples, gay marriage will
invite economic desolation and totalitarianism for all Americans. Can the
consolation of the LGBT community last when the economy ends? Will your support
and/or silence seem so economic or wise then?
Because current income distributions and childlessness are unsustainable, we have come to rely on government as our economic arbiter. We have come to expect government to sustain what is unsustainable through periodic extralegal redistributions: for example, to take money from those who save it, to give unearned income to those who spend it, to rescue uneconomic jobs and industries, to print money to avert defaults in government or interruptions to social services, to sustain consumption and demand with trade imbalances, to support childless pensioners on the labor of other people's children. This gives government power over subsistence and, according to Alexander Hamilton, "power over a man's subsistence is a power over his will". The more unsustainable is our macroeconomy, the larger, the more arbitrary, and the more intrusive must be this government arbiter. In crisis, the actions of this arbiter, once legitimized by laws, must become lawless, tyrannical, and totalitarian: conserving and enlarging its own power--rationing capital away from economic activity--underwriting uneconomic political and social programs--manipulating the collective opinion against the just claims of economic minorities--becoming the enemy of individual freedom, of self-directed activity, and of personal property--discouraging the investment, initiative, innovation, and liberality that could keep us from captivity. Does this seem familiar?
Let’s
be clear, secular stagnation and its causes (which are inducing deflation) arise from secularism—from a lack
of faith in anything except stores of money and the security this suggests. And secularism is bad macroeconomics. This leaves secularists torn between a) their uneconomic, secular autonomy and b) a strictly planned economy--an economy that is ultimately incompatible with individual rights.
Hypocritically, the culture of secularism—a
culture that celebrates accumulation as the end of life--is counterproductive
to the economy. In fact, our rodent-like focus on hoarding cheese as its own
end shrinks and repels the macroeconomic cheese. For short-term satiation, we have resorted to eating baits from collective traps. Some say our culture is unsustainable
morally and spiritually. Secular stagnation reveals that it is unsustainable economically. If economy is paramount (“it’s the economy,
stupid”), why have we embraced a culture that is counterproductive to the
economy and is incompatible with sustained individual freedom?
While economic data will defend this thesis--that secularism is bad macroeconomics--it is harder to explain why prosperity has generally departed from those who are the least secular in America (ie. the average, once middle-class, conservative Americans)--from those who do the most to grow the economy. In our economy, there seems to be a micro bias against what is sustainable on a macro scale. For some reason, the economy has relatively punished the unsecular (ie. conservatives, evangelicals, this author who writes about the economic unsustainability of secularism) and relatively rewarded the secular (ie. wealthy elites, technocrats, and gays). Call it the unseen hand. Today, as arbiter (ie. because mortgage credit was nationalized by bailouts), government is able to selectively reward its secular supporters (ie. with mortgage modifications) and punish the unsecular (ie. with foreclosures). And often, public policy secularizes (ie. state funding for abortions and birth control providers, specific tax credits for two-income households, grants to liberal educators). Of course, the secular are staunch supporters of interventions by government in their favor--though their ascendency accelerates inequality and macroeconomic unsustainability in America.
Because current macroeconomic conditions are not sustainable, NASA is warning about "inequality-induced famine" and an irreversible collapse.
Secular convergence was economically unsustainable in revolutionary France, in the Soviet Union, and in Maoist China. It will be in a godless America. For the sake of macroeconomic sustainability, the faithless must admit Providence into their society and the faithful into their prosperity.
It matters economic, in God, we Americans, do not trust. We have put our trust in paper dollars and deceits: we thought that experts could tell us what is productive--without approaching what is moral. We have applied principles of economic efficiency to everything--except the macro-effect of our own lifestyles. Because we thought our economic intercourse depended on it, we have become un-American--to some, the Great Satan--a force for unsustainable secularity in the world. Even believers have feared man more than God and the word of economic experts more than the word of God. We became so provident that we evicted Providence. And took secular economists as our prophets of plenty. Then, brutalized by an economy that is increasingly inefficient, distorted, and unsustainable, many believers became brutish--characterized by an anxious legalism and an abandoned acquisitiveness. Some, because they don't trust God, would have us sacrifice all of our sensibilities (moral, religious, and otherwise) to collective economic security. Some eschew conservatism of the social variety--imagining that inebriates can be made to balance budgets. As evidenced by U.S. trade deficits and budget deficits and debts and debt service, it is apparent that their "conservatism" has failed. It is time we recognized that it is conservatism of the social variety that sustains the macro-economy. It is time we admit that our economic choices haven't been provident without Providence. It is time we acknowledge that abominations invite economic desolations. Alternatively, if we persist on our macro-improvident way, in its fruition, will we find the secular-efficient, collectively-planned, and necessarily totalitarian lifestyle cushy? Is there nothing dearer to us Americans than the security of perishable substance?
There is much argument in America about which class of persons is culpable for our constrained economy. Some blame the 47%. Others consider themselves the 99% and blame the 1%. These arguments demonize others; predictably, they lionize substance. We are exploited by them. Ultimately, they will divide us because a) secularity is not sustainable and because b) we are unable to discover a unity between us that is not secular.
There was a time when statesmen concerned themselves with virtue as policy (ie. economic policy). For example, it was clear to Benjamin Franklin that: "Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters."